1. OPEC cut crude production by 750,000 bpd last fall in response to “low” oil prices. They’ve raised quotas by 500,000 for October. It is yet to be seen if they can actually achieve this. Early reports from Oil Intel, who counts tankers leaving OPEC ports, says there has been no increase in production.
2. Historically OPEC has not been able to control its members when oil prices are high. Rampant quota cheating is always seen as the oil price rises. Why, in the granddaddy of all oil price spikes, would this time be any different? IMHO, every OPEC member is producing at 100% except for Saudi Arabia which has maybe 500,000 bpd spare capacity.

Cantarell, the #2 oil field in the world is declining 10+% per year. The North Sea oil fields are declining at 10% per year. The production decline will accelerate into the future. We will see gas stations running out of fuel and/or govt fuel rationing within 3 years.

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1982 300TD 279K.
1984 190D 5sp 265K

The Saudi's seem to be having trouble hitting their numbers. Yes, that OPEC is not flooding the market right now is remarkable, and probably tells you everything you need to know. That, and with Exxon having two quarters of declining profits is starting to put "peak oil" in the vocabulary. Crude is probably close to $30 rich in the price right now, but it's just a matter of time until anything we see now is cheap. Demand from China seems to be growing parabolic along with ever other problem the worry warts want to focus on - food, population, weather, water and funny bugs.
CYA and get ready to adapt. The Chinese character for disaster is the same as opportunity. It'll be five years after the fact we can know with any certainty that we've peaked, but the demand from the developing countries have effected the same result right now.
It's amazing how little you can get by on if you really try. I'm living alone now, but have gotten down my electric consumption by nearly 70%

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89 300E
79 240D
72 Westy
63 Bug sunroof
85 Jeep CJ7
86 Chevy 6.2l diesel PU

"The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane."
Marcus Aurelius