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Old 03-12-2008, 01:45 PM
Craig
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Well, you've covered a lot of ground there:

First, we have to recognize that this is a worldwide market. Even though the U.S. is the biggest single consumer, that's only about 20% of the worlds consumption.

Second, the U.S. obtains a little less than half of it's oil from OPEC nations, but OPEC controls enough of the production to essentially set the market price. From OPEC's point of view, the problem is market volatility; they want a nice steady $90US+ market, they do not want to see their market crash to $30US like it did in the 90s.

Third, part of the U.S. price issue is the weak dollar which is being (partially) driven by the trade deficit (including oil). The fed is also contributing to this by lowering rates and dumping more dollars onto the currency market.

Fourth, we all have to understand that the amount of energy (including oil) used by china and india will increase drastically over the next few decades. This is likely to affect the energy markets more than anything the U.S. does.

In my opinion, the only reasonable course of action for the U.S, is to minimize their dependence on these imports. It appears to me that the only way that will happen is if oil prices increase significantly. At $3-5/gallon there is very little incentive to reduce consumption, at $6-8/gallon there might be a noticeable difference. The only question is how to get there; do we want a retail tax of a couple of dollars per gallon to drive the price, do we impose a duty on imported oil only to drive the price and encourage domestic production, do we mandate mileage limits and impose "gas guzzler" taxes, do we offer tax incentives to get rid of residential oil heat?
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