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Old 03-12-2008, 11:24 AM
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Join Date: Mar 2008
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Remembering the 1974 and 1979 oil crises, predicting the future

If gas prices continue to rise I'm wondering if history will repeat itself in terms of diesel offerings and sales spikes.

A friend and I were trying to recall what happened following the first two oil shocks and came up with this list. I've also added some predictions to the list.

Hoping the diesel fans out there can add to the list (history and predictions), correct any errors and provide commentary / perspective.

I'm also interested in links to articles related to this topic.

1. There were two previous oil shocks, #1 in 1974 and #2 1979
2. The triggers were Arab oil embargo and Iran hostage crisis
3. MB diesel sales skyrocketed following both shocks, reaching 50% of MB total US sales in 19xx
4. Mercedes created a turbo diesel version of their S-class called the 300SD. This was a unique offering for the US market only.
5. At the height of diesel popularity 85% of S-class sales were the diesel version.
6. GM V8 diesels were introduced in 1977 and made up x% of GM sales on the models they were offered (most popular year)
7. VW diesels were introduced in 1977 and made up x% of VW sales (most popular year)
8. By 1982 fuel prices had fallen and diesel sales began to wane
9. Diesels sales will rise as clean diesels enter the market but won't sell in signifcant numbers until fuel costs $5 / gallon, yes or no
10. Fuel (gas or diesel) prices have peaked, yes or no
11. Fuel prices will be $x per gallon by 2010
12. In the US diesel fuel is taxed 6% more than gasoline. The government will make the tax the same or lower for diesel to encourage good behavior, yes or no
13. Diesel prices will forever remain higher than gas due to other factors such as refining capacity, infrastructure, etc.
14. Diesels will never match hybrids in terms of US acceptance, the dirty image is too hard to shake, yes or no
15. Low sulfur diesel fuel will never be easy to find
16. Clean diesels will be eligible for the same customer tax credits as hybrids, yes or no (note in case of hybrids these run out for a manufacturer after 60,000 units sold)
17. The next president of the United States will be...

Look forward to your thoughts and thank you!

Pete

Last edited by ivorysl; 03-12-2008 at 11:51 AM.
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