We just had a meeting regarding IT response to a pandemic. They are expecting a worst case of 50% infection with 1-4% mortality. Wash your hands folks.

Jorg

Right now it is approaching 40% mortality. It is respiratory so hand-washing wont help.

What else you got?

B

Not much. They will close the University to all but essential staff and designated alternates. Medical research facilities will remain functional with high security. Web services and e-mail will be maintained. They basically feel that schools and universities need to be shut down immediately. 30,000 students mingling in huge lecture theatres and then spreading across the city at night, yeah, I guess that could be a problem. They have made arrangements with banks to continue salary direct deposits for a number of months, but if your 40% is correct it will all go to hell. Doesn't that seem unusually high?
Jorg

Most of the deaths have been in 3rd world nations. I would assume that places with good medical treatment and more stringent sanitary conditions in farm-raised birds would ameliorate the current mortality rate.

I think that this is why the gov, at least in the USA, is not ordering enough vaccine for everybody. If they can innoculate enough people they can prevent a general epidemic and instead, deal with whatever cases come along.

It's a statistical function in epidemiology, I'll bet. Probably have to have some threshold denstity of susceptible population for the epidemic to become self-sustaining. So you try to provide sufficient prophylaxis to keep the cases below the threshold.

Just a guess.

B

I think it would all come down to how the general population reacts. I think our highly complex society is vulnerable if we all go home and bar our doors in panic. If we can maintain composure and keep core systems on-line we will be golden.

Ironically less complex societies will probably endure a possible pandemic far better even though they would be suffering higher mortality rates.

I bet that while a pandemic could bring our society to a grinding halt it would have negligible effect on the current state in Iraq.



Jorg

What scares me is that this might be a beginning of a catastophic natural rebalancing. Could be that the ideal number oh humans for this planet is one tenth of what we've got. I'm not volunteering to lighten the load and no one else is either, with a few exceptions. Perhaps biology will do the selecting.

Meanwhile, I've been doing some study on maintaining a healthy immune system. No easy fixes on that but supposedly the supplements made from a few kinds of mushrooms and a Chinese herb or two do help.

__________________
Te futueo et caballum tuum

1986 300SDL, 362K
1984 300D, 138K

If that is the case, Chinese should be pretty safe, right? But most deaths were in China, were they not?

I find this whole thing a joke. We have been looking for a cure of common cold and flu for how long now? Do people really think we can come up with some miracle cure in a year? America either has become too paranoia or drug dependent. Don't even get me start on the drugs thing.

All in all, we are all screwed. Now, how about pass me a drum stick if you don't mind? And this thing is not going to stop me from going back to Hooters for the wings either.

__________________
95 R129
04 Infiniti G35.5 BS
10 X204

It could be a repeat of the swine flu scare. For those of you whose memories fade or don't extend so far into the past, there was a panic about a flu that got passed to swine and could also infect humans. It was feared that it might become the Spanish Flu of the late 20th century.

On the other hand, bird flu could become the spanish flu of the 21st century. We wont know until it is either too late to stop wasting money and time on a disease that never becomes a deadly pandemic or too late because it becomes a deadly pandemic in a form for which we have no vaccine. Policymakers have to decide which way they'd prefer to err.

Think of Ray Nagin.

In 2004 he called for an emergency evacuation of NOLA 3 days in advance of the landfall of Hurricane Ivan. But Ivan veered to the FL coast instead of up the Mississippi as predicted in the 3-day prediction.

In 2005 Ray Nagin delayed ordering an evacuation and the people, remembering the dreadful traffic and wasted money and time from Ivan probably wouldn't have left even if Nagin had ordered an early mandatory.

That same type of dilemma faces policyymakers concerning bird flu.

What would you do? On which track would you prefer to be declared foolish?

B

Bot,
There is an answer to that. It's called damned if you do and damned if you don't.

__________________
95 R129
04 Infiniti G35.5 BS
10 X204

I'll bet plenty of people in China have no interest in or access to herbs or herbologists. Here in Murka we have the leisure time and disposable income to make use of such things. I'm not saying this sort of compound alone would help one survive bird flu or be less susceptible to any flu, but fact is, in the great flu pandemic here in the U.S. in what, the 19-teens, some got sick but recovered and some died.

Do a web search on mushrooms and immune system. Drweil.com has some info on it.

__________________
Te futueo et caballum tuum

1986 300SDL, 362K
1984 300D, 138K

Been to a herbologist in China town? Picture that with a magnitude of hundred for the ones in China. That's all they use for medicine. They probably look at you fuuny if you give them a bottle of Teraflu.

__________________
95 R129
04 Infiniti G35.5 BS
10 X204

I think the snakehead fish poses a bigger threat. I am with elau on this one--media armageddon stuff. I don't doubt that it is a dangerous disease, but I bet there have been dozens more deadly we just haven't heard about in the last ten years. Then there have been the Anthrax scares, ect....that didn't get as much attention.

Good point. And for the poorer folks, herbs are much more accessible than advanced medical care, especially if they live in the rural areas and can hunt out their own.

My point was that just because there have been deaths in China due to bird flu, it doesn't mean that some Chinese herbs don't have value. The deaths from bird flu there are likely the result of the incredibly crowded conditions in many urban areas which leads to people hanging out pretty closely with their livestock.

The Dr. Weil guy has a mixed reputation but I like the guy all in all. He's an actual MD who is willing to utilize the best of each of the various medical branches. For example, he's said that if he were in a major car accident, he wouldn't go to an accupuncturist or herbalist, he'd go to major hospital's trauma unit. But he maintains some of the other avenues, often derided as woo-woo, can have merit if used for the appropriate maladies.

Here's his immune system blend which I use:

http://www.drweil.com/u/HC/Product169/

More from him on immune system:

http://www.drweil.com/u/Article/F54/

__________________
Te futueo et caballum tuum

1986 300SDL, 362K
1984 300D, 138K

I don't know much about the bird flue but west nile is a government manufactured disease designed to kill old people so the can no longer collect social security.
Aluminum foil makes you go bald

Man I hope I don't catch that Anthrax again. Laid me up for a week.

Jorg