The Economic Nuke - Page 3 - PeachParts Mercedes-Benz Forum

LaRondo · #31 08-08-2007, 09:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GottaDiesel

China is about as much our friend as Israel is.

But you know what they say about "friends" right.

... keep smiling ...

LaRondo · #32 08-08-2007, 09:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Botnst

The Chinese political regime is under tremendous stress from several factors, some historical and others of a more recent origin.

Historically, the nation has been strongly divided along regional, linguistic, and ethnic lines. The communists used these divisions to their advantage during the early 20th century. (It was also their good fortune that the Koumintang was thoroughly corrupt and inept -- the perfect enemy for a communist uprising, not unlike Czarist Russia in that respect.)

Under the strong repression of Maoist Communism the various historical divisions were brutally oppressed -- millions of people died in the continuous upheavals during the middle-third of the 20th century as the communists slowly suppressed the various factional divisions. This is the stability that Tito offered the former state known as Yugoslavia. However with the growing power of the non-communists in China and the relaxation of central control, the historical divisions are re-emerging. The importance of these divisions is magnified by the disparity of entrepreneurial wealth and the increasingly evident corruption of the government's organs responsible for development.

It is more than likely that the central government will be forced by the Chinese Army to crack-down on the factionalization that is anathema to any centrally-controlled, authoritarian government. (The way a democracy deals with factions is through political empowerment -- bring'em into the process and they are no longer a threat to stability and order. Practically by definition, a communist government cannot sustain itself with a diversity of opinion in the populace).

So I think that China is on a collision course with itself. the factors of calcified central control, an increasingly politically powerful military, resurgence of regionalism, and the stressors of economic growth will make China increasingly unstable. This is not an all-good thing or an all-bad thing. But there is no question that it is extraordinarily dangerous and will get worse, much worse, IMO. I'm betting China will engage in one of it's periodic civil wars in which many millions die. China has a long history of self-butchery. There is no reason to believe those factors which brought on previous bloodbaths are no longer at work.

I'm always amazed by the thouroughness of your analysis, esp. when it comes to foreign nation's "Political Regimes" ...

GottaDiesel · #33 08-08-2007, 09:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mistress

I have time in my schedule for a few whippings.....Why would they do something like this when we import most of their crap?

Importing their crap was a method to their means. They goal isn't to sell us cheap crap. It is to control out economy. The core of our economy, and the very strength of it was our industrious nature. That core has been taken away -- by, you guessed it, the Chinese.

We are a nation that produces nothing. At one time the only salvation was that we really did feed the world. Nobody produced more food than we did.

The problem is take a look at who is taking an interest in the farms. They control our disposable goods, and many of our durable goods. Next they will control our food. From there, we'll be done. Our economy can survive on inertial for a while, but sooner or later it will collapse.

We need to get back to being a nation of producers and no longer a nation of middle-men.

450slcguy · #34 08-08-2007, 10:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GottaDiesel

We need to get back to being a nation of producers and no longer a nation of middle-men.

Exactly. If China wants to push the economic button maybe that wouldn't be such a bad thing in the long term. This country needs a China wake-up call and that would do it.

And as far as the Russians go, well that's another call that needs to be answered in a different way. A new cold war anyone?

A confrontation is looming on the horizon and it ain't gonna be pretty. Weather it's the Chinese or the Russians, they both pose serious threats to national security, either economically or militarily.

raymr · #35 08-08-2007, 10:38 PM

There is one big differnece in China today from it's historical past. That's communication. Chinese cultures were once defined and isolated by impassible mountain ranges, jungles, and seas. I would imagine the younger generation, through various media, will become a driving force to homogenize the country more than it ever has been.

tankdriver · #36 08-08-2007, 10:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GottaDiesel

We need to get back to being a nation of producers and no longer a nation of middle-men.

Middle men make more money. And send their kids to college.

I think China is gonig to become a big problem. Maybe there will be a revolt, or maybe they'll invade one of their neighbors again. Although I do think it's a tactic, I don't think American purchasing power is going to necessarily stop them if they wanted to carry out the threat. Others in the world will end up with increased purchasing power. We'll just go back to being a relatively weak country.

GottaDiesel · #37 08-08-2007, 11:07 PM

Middle men make more money in the short-run. In the long run people like me find ways to cut them out of the picture.

Hatterasguy · #38 08-08-2007, 11:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by raymr

There is one big differnece in China today from it's historical past. That's communication. Chinese cultures were once defined and isolated by impassible mountain ranges, jungles, and seas. I would imagine the younger generation, through various media, will become a driving force to homogenize the country more than it ever has been.

Correct, they are already starting to see that over there. The younger generation isn't to wild about the currant government. The argument seems to be about how and when to change not if they should.

Its not an if queston, its a when.