Iran test-fires missiles in Persian Gulf - Page 5 - PeachParts Mercedes-Benz Forum

aklim · #61 07-10-2008, 01:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hatterasguy

IMHO all we need to do with Iran is sit back and poke at the currant government for the next 20 years until it falls apart. Than get friendly with the more moderate government that replaces them.

Good plan. However, what happens DURING the 20 years is up for debate. Will it quietly go away or will there be other issues that come up? All assuming that they do collapse in 20 years, that is.

Hatterasguy · #62 07-10-2008, 01:47 PM

Doesn't matter when they collapse. In this case we have all the time in the world, they don't. Thats a huge advantage. In situations like this the party who can afford to sit and wait will win if they take advantage of it.

Worst case they lob a few missles and Isreal lobs a few back, that won't really change anything. Doesn't matter if they have a nuke, they are not stupid enough to use it.

aklim · #63 07-10-2008, 02:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hatterasguy

Doesn't matter when they collapse. In this case we have all the time in the world, they don't. Thats a huge advantage. In situations like this the party who can afford to sit and wait will win if they take advantage of it.

Worst case they lob a few missles and Isreal lobs a few back, that won't really change anything.

Doesn't matter if they have a nuke, they are not stupid enough to use it.

Sure it does. If they collapse tomorrow, they are less likely to do something we don't like. If they collapse in 10 years, they are more likely to do something we don't like. 20 years and they are even more likely and so on.

Will Israel settle for lobbing a few back? We would but Israel might not. Hopefully they go full scale and wipe them off the face of the earth.

So sure, are you? Religion promotes stupidity.

DieselAddict · #64 07-10-2008, 02:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aklim

Will Israel settle for lobbing a few back? We would but Israel might not. Hopefully they go full scale and wipe them off the face of the earth.

I think it would take more than the nukes Israel currently has to completely wipe out Iran. Iran is a big country and it has some powerful interests. Russia for example could get pissed off and wipe out Israel in the blink of an eye. This could get very ugly. Not to mention nuking Iran would kill a significant portion of the world's oil supply.

450slcguy · #65 07-10-2008, 02:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hatterasguy

IMHO all we need to do with Iran is sit back and poke at the currant government for the next 20 years until it falls apart. Than get friendly with the more moderate government that replaces them.

In 20 years we might be the ones who collapse.

Hatterasguy · #66 07-10-2008, 02:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 450slcguy

In 20 years we might be the ones who collapse.

Doubt it.

aklim · #67 07-10-2008, 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DieselAddict

Russia for example could get pissed off and wipe out Israel in the blink of an eye. This could get very ugly. Not to mention nuking Iran would kill a significant portion of the world's oil supply.

It could also be said that we will get pissed at Russia and start shooting at them. Those are possibilities. However, I doubt it will happen. Why? Russia doesn't have that much religious input at the top and might be more easily persuaded to get pissed and not start a major firefight. Would I want to remove nukes from Russia in the state it is in? No. I feel pretty comfortable with them. Iran, well....

The USSR which was more militant in the past and had issues in Afghanistan were a nuke was more suited than ground troops didn't then. What make them want to do so now?

John Doe · #68 07-10-2008, 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 450slcguy

In 20 years we might be the ones who collapse.

Have the Jehovah's Witnesses reset a new Armageddon date since 1999 has passed? I don't think I was one of the chosen 44,000 on the last go round but want to make sure I get on the list this time. Just in case.

aklim · #69 07-10-2008, 02:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by John Doe

Have the Jehovah's Witnesses reset a new Armageddon date since 1999 has passed? I don't think I was one of the chosen 44,000 on the last go round but want to make sure I get on the list this time. Just in case.

How much money you got? Bribe the right person and you might be ahead in line.

DieselAddict · #70 07-10-2008, 02:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aklim

It could also be said that we will get pissed at Russia and start shooting at them. Those are possibilities. However, I doubt it will happen. Why? Russia doesn't have that much religious input at the top and might be more easily persuaded to get pissed and not start a major firefight. Would I want to remove nukes from Russia in the state it is in? No. I feel pretty comfortable with them. Iran, well....

The USSR which was more militant in the past and had issues in Afghanistan were a nuke was more suited than ground troops didn't then. What make them want to do so now?

Only a terrorist state would nuke someone on a first-strike basis. What you're proposing (nuking Iran now without provocation) is the ultimate act of terrorism. But if Israel nuked Iran, then the chance of Russia nuking Israel back is much higher because then it would just be defending its interests against terrorism.

450slcguy · #71 07-10-2008, 02:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hatterasguy

Doubt it.

The projected numbers don't support that optimism.

DieselAddict · #72 07-10-2008, 02:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 450slcguy

In 20 years we might be the ones who collapse.

If we keep wasting money and lives on useless wars, our economy could collapse even sooner.

aklim · #73 07-10-2008, 02:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DieselAddict

Only a terrorist state would nuke someone on a first-strike basis. What you're proposing (nuking Iran now without provocation) is the ultimate act of terrorism. But if Israel nuked Iran, then the chance of Russia nuking Israel back is much higher because then it would just be defending its interests against terrorism.

In a pure sense, yes. However, since when have politics been about principle? Doesn't have to be a pre-emptive strike. Israel takes out a reactor, Iran does this and it leads to one of the two being wiped out. Works for me. At the very least, it leaves Iran with some problems to think about before it tries to support the guys in Iraq. Like I said, if they were not willing to go all out even in Afghanistan, what makes you think they will go all out here?

Somehow I doubt that the US will be very happy if Israel starts with a nuke and that will weigh heavily on the Israeli mind because we have bought some influence there. But if they are attacked with a nuke, I doubt Russia would go all the way and wipe them out for retaliating. Hopefully, the Israelis have learned their lesson about this limited war crap and really do some damage. If not, they deserve to be wiped out and we can find somebody else to buy.

DieselAddict · #74 07-10-2008, 02:45 PM

Different times, different interests. You can never know. Russia wouldn't even need nukes to wipe out Israel. They have more than enough conventional warheads for every city in Israel.

Let's get real now though. More likely Israel will just bomb a suspected nuke facility in Iran. Iran might retaliate with some missiles. Israel might counter-retaliate with its own strikes. UN security council will intervene and pressure both sides to stop within a few days. Oil in the meantime will be at $200 a barrel or more.

aklim · #75 07-10-2008, 02:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DieselAddict

Different times, different interests. You can never know. Russia wouldn't even need nukes to wipe out Israel. They have more than enough conventional warheads for every city in Israel.

Oil in the meantime will be at $200 a barrel or more.

"Can do it" is very different from "will do it" and I doubt that Russia would do much more than scream and yell.

If nukes were involved, for a short time, it will be. Small scale conventional attacks, I doubt it.

Edit: OTOH, if Israel took out a large portion of Iran and weakened them considerably but in the process got wiped out by Russia, is that a bad thing?