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  #16  
Old 08-08-2010, 11:54 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rscurtis View Post
Many of the so-called "experts" knew the "big one" was coming, they just didn't want to yell "FIRE" in the crowded movie theatre while everyone was watching the "Ben and Alan dog and pony show."
Yep, personal finance analysts I spoke with pointed to the inverted yield curve as a serious warning sign back in 2005 or early 2006.

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  #17  
Old 08-08-2010, 05:31 PM
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What we have here is the "Expert Problem" wherein the "experts" aren't any better at predicting things than a randomly selected person.

I suggest reading this for a further discussion of "experts" who aren't:
http://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Improbable-Robustness-Fragility/dp/081297381X/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1281302997&sr=8-1

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