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  #46  
Old 09-21-2010, 02:26 PM
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Originally Posted by Craig View Post

The vast majority of americans still have the same job and income that they had a couple of years ago; the only thing that changed was their confidence in keeping that job. Once people believe that the economy has hit bottom and is recovering, they will relax and go back to maxing out their VISA cards. Not very bright, but it's human nature.
Then, when we all retire, those who pissed away their money will be penniless, and the pols will tell us that our retirees are among the poorest in the world, and we simply MUST do something to improve their quality of life. If my investments have amounted to anything, I'm sure I'll be told that it's time to pay my "fair share" to help those poor souls out.

It irks me to no end that I'll end up paying for someone's poor choices while I drive nothing but used cars and have exactly one debt (my house payment) in order to prepare for the future.

Human nature indeed; the ugly truth.

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  #47  
Old 09-21-2010, 03:00 PM
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Originally Posted by cscmc1 View Post
Then, when we all retire, those who pissed away their money will be penniless, and the pols will tell us that our retirees are among the poorest in the world, and we simply MUST do something to improve their quality of life. If my investments have amounted to anything, I'm sure I'll be told that it's time to pay my "fair share" to help those poor souls out.

It irks me to no end that I'll end up paying for someone's poor choices while I drive nothing but used cars and have exactly one debt (my house payment) in order to prepare for the future.

Human nature indeed; the ugly truth.
All true. I will never, ever buy a new vehicle of ANY kind again.

The vast majority of Americans are demonstrating clueless financial behavior - wandering through their working years mired in red ink (debt,) many upside-down financially speaking - with no plan for their financial future. 52% of Americans have less than $5,000.00 in total savings, including their IRAs.

The statistics are indeed scary, when taken into account.
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  #48  
Old 09-21-2010, 03:04 PM
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Originally Posted by Skid Row Joe View Post

The vast majority of Americans are demonstrating clueless financial behavior - wandering through their working years mired in red ink (debt,) many upside-down financially speaking - with no plan for their financial future. 52% of Americans have less than $5,000.00 in total savings, including their IRAs.
In a way, I can understand this behavior. Why worry when the pols all pander to that type of person -- "vote for us, and we'll take care of you."
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  #49  
Old 09-21-2010, 04:08 PM
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Originally Posted by cscmc1 View Post
In a way, I can understand this behavior. Why worry when the polls all pander to that type of person -- "vote for us, and we'll take care of you."
Talking about polls........most people have wised-up in the past 19 months.....

The empty, stupid battle cry of:

"Hope and Change," and "Yes We Can!" has now become;

"Beans 'n Franks and unemployment is my new reality."

is workin' out for Americans......

Last edited by Skid Row Joe; 09-21-2010 at 06:26 PM.
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  #50  
Old 09-21-2010, 04:11 PM
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Originally Posted by Craig View Post
I thought we had known this for a while, the economy hasn't met the criterion for a recession for months. Is this just the "official" data being published?
True. However, don't know about Colorado, but NJ is 9.8% unemployed, Nevada is over 14% and California is God knows what percent unemployed. Recession over? Depends on what the meaning if 'is" is. It also depends on if you have job or are a 99er coming to the end of your UC stream. Housing and mortgage markets still have deeep holes to climb out of. Bomb craters is more like it.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2010/09/americas_recession

THE American recession is officially over. This isn't a surprise. The official end-date, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, was June of 2009. This also wasn't a surprise. That end-date made the recession of 2007-09 the longest in America's postwar history at 18 months, surpassing the 16-month contractions in 1973-75 and 1981-82. Also not a surprise.

Back in April, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee met to discuss whether an official end-date could be determined. At that point, there was near-universal agreement that the recession was over. And committee member Robert Gordon was quite adamant in arguing that the committee had enough information to make a call and to name June of 2009 the trough. But the committee voted to hold off:

“The committee waited to make its decision until revisions in the National Income and Product Accounts, released on July 30 and August 27, 2010, clarified the 2009 time path of the two broadest measures of economic activity, real Gross Domestic Product (real GDP) and real Gross Domestic Income (real GDI). The committee noted that in the most recent data, for the second quarter of 2010, the average of real GDP and real GDI was 3.1 percent above its low in the second quarter of 2009 but remained 1.3 percent below the previous peak which was reached in the fourth quarter of 2007.

The response to this announcement, already echoing through the blogosphere, is that hey, it doesn't feel like the recession is over! The dating committee realises this:

“In determining that a trough occurred in June 2009, the committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity. Rather, the committee determined only that the recession ended and a recovery began in that month. A recession is a period of falling economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. The trough marks the end of the declining phase and the start of the rising phase of the business cycle. Economic activity is typically below normal in the early stages of an expansion, and it sometimes remains so well into the expansion.

What's important to understand is that this is a technical finding, indicating that a specific trough has come to an end and that any subsequent, sustained decline would be labeled a new recession. Obviously, the employment picture is still dismal, and people complaining that policymakers should focus on labour markets rather than output have a point. It's just not one that's particularly relevant to what the NBER Dating Committee does.
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  #51  
Old 09-21-2010, 04:36 PM
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Originally Posted by dynalow View Post
True. However, don't know about Colorado, but NJ is 9.8% unemployed, Nevada is over 14% and California is God knows what percent unemployed. Recession over? Depends on what the meaning if 'is" is. It also depends on if you have job or are a 99er coming to the end of your UC stream. Housing and mortgage markets still have deeep holes to climb out of. Bomb craters is more like it.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2010/09/americas_recession

THE American recession is officially over. This isn't a surprise. The official end-date, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, was June of 2009. This also wasn't a surprise. That end-date made the recession of 2007-09 the longest in America's postwar history at 18 months, surpassing the 16-month contractions in 1973-75 and 1981-82. Also not a surprise.

Back in April, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee met to discuss whether an official end-date could be determined. At that point, there was near-universal agreement that the recession was over. And committee member Robert Gordon was quite adamant in arguing that the committee had enough information to make a call and to name June of 2009 the trough. But the committee voted to hold off:

“The committee waited to make its decision until revisions in the National Income and Product Accounts, released on July 30 and August 27, 2010, clarified the 2009 time path of the two broadest measures of economic activity, real Gross Domestic Product (real GDP) and real Gross Domestic Income (real GDI). The committee noted that in the most recent data, for the second quarter of 2010, the average of real GDP and real GDI was 3.1 percent above its low in the second quarter of 2009 but remained 1.3 percent below the previous peak which was reached in the fourth quarter of 2007.

The response to this announcement, already echoing through the blogosphere, is that hey, it doesn't feel like the recession is over! The dating committee realises this:

“In determining that a trough occurred in June 2009, the committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity. Rather, the committee determined only that the recession ended and a recovery began in that month. A recession is a period of falling economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. The trough marks the end of the declining phase and the start of the rising phase of the business cycle. Economic activity is typically below normal in the early stages of an expansion, and it sometimes remains so well into the expansion.

What's important to understand is that this is a technical finding, indicating that a specific trough has come to an end and that any subsequent, sustained decline would be labeled a new recession. Obviously, the employment picture is still dismal, and people complaining that policymakers should focus on labour markets rather than output have a point. It's just not one that's particularly relevant to what the NBER Dating Committee does.
And in AZ it's around 20 percent plus. That article indicates why intellectuals are so remarkably irellivent in this discussion.

To put it bluntly. The stinking rich might be able to stop having heart attacks over their portfolios but that doesn't mean dick to the country as a whole.

- Peter.
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  #52  
Old 09-22-2010, 02:01 AM
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CFO VELMA: THE NEW VOICE OF OUR AMERICAN MISERY

By Dick Morris

Published on TheHill.com on September 21, 2010

The MSNBC cameras unwittingly — and probably unwillingly — captured a Joe the Plumber moment during Monday’s town hall meeting called by President Obama to discuss the economy. Expressing the frustration of tens of millions of Americans on a day during which the economists called the recession over, Velma Hart, a self-described CFO, wife, mother and veteran, expressed her “deep disappointment” with Obama’s economic record — to his face.

“I’ve been told that I voted for a man who said he’s going to change things in a meaningful way for the middle class. I’m one of those people, and I’m waiting, sir. … I’m waiting, but I don’t feel it yet.”


Calling herself “exhausted” by the rigors of the task of defending Obama, she lamented that she and her husband had thought the “franks and beans” era of their lives had drawn to a close but said she hears it “knocking” at the door. She finished with a heart-rending question to Obama, asking if anxiety is to be her “new reality.”

Wow.

This cry of distress coming from an African-American supporter of Obama’s will echo in each of our hearts as the fall elections approach. When we were in the midst of a recession, even the Great Recession, we came to expect high unemployment, much like those in the tropics expect a storm during the rainy season. But we are like those who are experiencing daily rain in the dry season now that the recession is over and unemployment hovers around 10 percent. Is this, indeed, to be our “new reality”?

The Democrats are gleeful over the missteps of Christine O’Donnell. Too many leading Republicans do not realize all our fates in the midterm election are tied to her. If the Democrats can discredit her, they can discredit all of those like her and raise doubts about dozens of GOP candidates who would otherwise be victorious. If the grassroots Tea Party is foisting unqualified candidates upon us, and if our very own party leaders think this is true, what a weapon we are handing to the Democrats. Those Republican leaders who would criticize the O’Donnells of our party must realize that she is here to stay, she is one of us now, and she deserves all our support. Fortunately, the grass roots knows this fact and has showered her campaign with donations and support.

But the juxtaposing of the O’Donnell-witchcraft story and the Velma-the-CFO story on the same day speaks to a more profound point: As Democrats line up to savage the likes of Sarah Palin, Christine O’Donnell, Sharron Angle and Rand Paul, they fail to realize that this election is not about them. It is about us. It turns not on their biographies, but on our misery. We have watched one of the most activist presidents in history, blessed with the most compliant of Congresses, pass program after program, virtually without modification or even significant amendment, all the while assuring us that they would lead us out of recession and into recovery. Now that the recovery is supposedly upon us, we realize, to our dread, that it may be a future of permanent unemployment, just as they have in Europe.

This is the agony that impelled Velma the CFO to speak out. It is a deeply personal distress and speaks to each of our expectations for the rest of our lives. If the candidates who dabbled in witchcraft as children or who preach an overly strict personal morality are the ones who back cuts in government spending, a reduction in the deficit, no higher taxes, an end to government takeover of our healthcare system and no cuts in Medicare, then we will vote for them anyway.

Were the election more academic, were it waged on issues of less personal moment to each of us, it would be different. But who can ignore the witchcraft being practices, not by high-schoolers, but by legislators in Washington hoping to summon prosperity from the other side by spending us into oblivion and taxing us to death? That is the witchcraft that worries all of us.

And worries Velma the CFO.
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  #53  
Old 09-22-2010, 07:06 AM
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Yes, unemployment is still high, but that has absolutely nothing to do with the definition of recession. Emoloyment is a completely separate economic indicator, apples and oranges.
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  #54  
Old 09-22-2010, 07:23 AM
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Originally Posted by pj67coll View Post
And in AZ it's around 20 percent plus. That article indicates why intellectuals are so remarkably irellivent in this discussion.

To put it bluntly. The stinking rich might be able to stop having heart attacks over their portfolios but that doesn't mean dick to the country as a whole.

- Peter.
The actual reported unemployment for AZ is 9.7% for 8/10. The estimates of "total unemployment" are not helpful data. If you want to trend the data, you need to use numbers that can be verified. Employment is a useful indicator, and I agree that the "recovery" will not really start moving until unemployment gets back to about 5%. As we can see, the markets will continue to flounder until investors are confident that the recession isn't coming back too soon.
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  #55  
Old 09-22-2010, 07:26 AM
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Originally Posted by cscmc1 View Post
Then, when we all retire, those who pissed away their money will be penniless, and the pols will tell us that our retirees are among the poorest in the world, and we simply MUST do something to improve their quality of life. If my investments have amounted to anything, I'm sure I'll be told that it's time to pay my "fair share" to help those poor souls out.

It irks me to no end that I'll end up paying for someone's poor choices while I drive nothing but used cars and have exactly one debt (my house payment) in order to prepare for the future.

Human nature indeed; the ugly truth.
Retirement = death with benefits.

I agree with being responsible for your own savings because you never know what might happen. Personally, I hope I never need to retire.
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  #56  
Old 09-22-2010, 07:58 AM
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Unemployment is high, but I don't hear too many ideas on how to fix it. But I blame it partly on the lobbyists for the big multinational corporations who get their clients tax breaks on their overseas business.
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  #57  
Old 09-22-2010, 08:24 AM
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Unemployment is high, but I don't hear too many ideas on how to fix it. But I blame it partly on the lobbyists for the big multinational corporations who get their clients tax breaks on their overseas business.

But you miss the point of why they(the corporations) move their HQ overseas. TAXES. Plain and simple. When a govt(be it federal,state or local) raises the cost of doing business to the point it is no longer profitable, The owners or boards of the Corp have to make a decision based on the economic welfare of their company.

A good example is the city of Philadelphia. There were thousands of small to mid sized companies chugging along fat dumb and happy. As the city then the county raised taxes they moved west a couple of counties across the river into NJ or south down into DE.

Who lost the most? the city itself. Reason being when the tax base moves the remaining businesses in the area must pick up the slack for the loss of revenue. I am in my 40's and have never seen a Municipality do with less. So the taxes are raised. Now the next business up the food chain leaves. It is a viscous cycle which results in the urban sprawl and empty industrial area (which breed crime IMHO) in the middle of our largest cities.

So now we have ACME manufacturing(made up but follow along) Was in a major metro area for 40 years. Taxes taxes taxes. The board (which no longer includes a Mr Acme, only a picture of him on the wall) decide to move.

Side note- over the past 40 years the company has diversified and in now in many different area of consumer products

The board votes and move the headquarters to Ireland. Why? Ireland has the lowest corporate tax of any western country.

When ever an area which houses a acme manufacturing affiliate raises taxes the plant closes and the product line gets moved to a different plant or location that has lower taxes.

Sorry to drag on the story but it what has been happening for over 50 years. Especially in the rust belt. Think steel industry in this country.

OK off my soap box.
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  #58  
Old 09-22-2010, 08:26 AM
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Originally Posted by raymr View Post
Unemployment is high, but I don't hear too many ideas on how to fix it. But I blame it partly on the lobbyists for the big multinational corporations who get their clients tax breaks on their overseas business.

Clinton had some interesting ideas the other day...

http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/thu-september-16-2010/exclusive---bill-clinton-extended-interview-pt--1
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  #59  
Old 09-22-2010, 08:45 AM
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Retirement = death with benefits.

I agree with being responsible for your own savings because you never know what might happen. Personally, I hope I never need to retire.
Speak for yourself. For me, retirement = what I'll have worked 30+ years at this job and 20+ years in the military (Guard) for: TRAVEL. I can spend a year or two "working" (i.e. doing just enough to keep me busy while I enjoy the outdoors in my free time) in Bavaria if I like, or the wife and I can sell everything and live in a cabin in the mountains somewhere. The possibilities are endless and quite exciting to consider IF I BELIEVE THAT MY INVESTMENTS WILL GROW AND NOT BE PECKED AWAY AT BY THE POLS.

I'm living my life quite modestly now in order that I might enjoy life a bit later without worrying about how to pay for it. Why shouldn't I be able to? Because it doesn't fit your definition of a worthwhile later life? Of course not. So I'll kindly ask the folks in government to quit digging into the little profit my investments are making and let my nest egg grow, thank you.
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  #60  
Old 09-22-2010, 08:45 AM
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Originally Posted by Skid Row Joe View Post
By Dick Morris

Published on TheHill.com on September 21, 2010

The MSNBC cameras unwittingly — and probably unwillingly — captured a Joe the Plumber moment during Monday’s town hall meeting called by President Obama to discuss the economy. Expressing the frustration of tens of millions of Americans on a day during which the economists called the recession over, Velma Hart, a self-described CFO, wife, mother and veteran, expressed her “deep disappointment” with Obama’s economic record — to his face.

“I’ve been told that I voted for a man who said he’s going to change things in a meaningful way for the middle class. I’m one of those people, and I’m waiting, sir. … I’m waiting, but I don’t feel it yet.”

Obviously a republican plant or a racist or a Tom.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A6smXinWzos

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