Social Security spiraling towards failure. - Page 9 - PeachParts Mercedes-Benz Forum

Honus · #**121** 03-27-2008, 01:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aklim

So all those people that are predicting those are more credible than those saying it won't are because?...

I can't answer that without knowing who is making what predictions. What specific predictions are you talking about?

EDIT: On second thought, even if you do specify which predictions you are talking about, I am not really qualified to do any economic critique. All we amateurs can do is read as broadly as we can and try to draw our own conclusions as to which position makes the most sense. As for SS, even W's Secretary of the Treasury doesn't make the dire prediction in the title of this thread.

raymr · #**122** 03-27-2008, 02:07 PM

As long as there are people paying in, there will still be money coming out the other end. However, if the pipline is smaller then distributions will be reduced and the eligibility age might be pushed back as the population tends to live a lot longer now.

When you hit a certain age (40?), SSA starts to mail out projections of what your SS benefit will be at different income levels and retirement ages. Aren't those projections accurate, or is there something people haven't been told?

Honus · #**123** 03-27-2008, 02:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by raymr

...Aren't those projections accurate, or is there something people haven't been told?

I think those projections state what you will be entitled to receive under current law, but I assume that they have to make a bunch of assumptions, such as whether they will have enough money to meet those legal obligations. If everybody keeps living so long, then maybe the money won't be there.

That's my amateur's guess.

aklim · #**124** 03-27-2008, 02:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dculkin

As for SS, even W's Secretary of the Treasury doesn't make the dire prediction in the title of this thread.

I thought you don't believe anything that comes out of the office. Of course he won't make dire predictions. No politician will. Politicians don't get elected or re-elected on the truth. It's always "Well, we had some hard times but with a little nudge, we will be back where we were". Perot was the closest to the truth and look where it got him. Politics seems to be all about saying how wonderful things are going to be. Few, if any will predict bad times. Nobody wants to hear that.

aklim · #**125** 03-27-2008, 02:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by raymr

As long as there are people paying in, there will still be money coming out the other end. However, if the pipline is smaller then distributions will be reduced and the eligibility age might be pushed back as the population tends to live a lot longer now.

And that strikes me as the way the Ponzi schemes operate. Only difference is that they can cut and run and be in Switzerland before they get found out.

I wonder how fast we'd be making license plates if we tried such a scheme as SS. I tried but I can't fathom what the difference is between the politicians running SS and people like me running a scheme similar to it.

aklim · #**126** 03-27-2008, 02:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dculkin

If everybody keeps living so long, then maybe the money won't be there.

It is not only that people are living so long. Did we forget that the baby boomers are about to retire? Still think it needs an adjustment? I don't see any way out except a major overhaul.

MS Fowler · #**127** 03-27-2008, 03:30 PM

Well, If the Supremes have judged it as Constitutional, then it MUST be, right?

Honus · #**128** 03-27-2008, 03:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MS Fowler

Well, If the Supremes have judged it as Constitutional, then it MUST be, right?

Only if you believe in the Constitution, which makes the Supreme Court the final arbiter on such things.

aklim · #**129** 03-27-2008, 03:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MS Fowler

Well, If the Supremes have judged it as Constitutional, then it MUST be, right?

Didn't the USSC once ruled that blacks could NEVER become citizens too? Something about a Tany vs Dredd or something like that?

aklim · #**130** 03-27-2008, 03:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dculkin

Only if you believe in the Constitution, which makes the Supreme Court the final arbiter on such things.

So how did you like the USSC judgment in 2000?

Honus · #**131** 03-27-2008, 04:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aklim

So how did you like the USSC judgment in 2000?

It was a correct, though somewhat activist, decision. It also doesn't matter what I think. Their decision is the law. Anyone who says that W was not a legitimate elected president is incorrect, IMHO.

The thing that offended me about that case was the ludicrous concurring opinion written by Chief Justice Rhenquist and joined by Justices Scalia and Thomas. Rhenquist tried to justify the Supreme Court's second guessing of the Florida Supreme Court's interpretation of Florida law. He said that the Florida Supreme Court had gone so far off the reservation that it was acting like the Alabama Supreme Court did when it tried to subvert civil rights laws by applying bizarre interpretations of state law. You can disagree with what the Florida Supreme Court did in Bush v. Gore, but to compare them to the blatantly racists judges of the Alabama Supreme Court is truly offensive.

This is a tangent, I know, but I just want to say for the record that Rhenquist was and Scalia is a judicial activist, no matter what Scalia says. I just thought I would say that for the record here.

raymr · #**132** 03-27-2008, 04:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aklim

First people say that there are a bunch of people who depend on this money. Now you say it doesn't make you dependent. Which is it?

Here is another way. DIY

There you go again. Somebody else must do YOUR work for you. What if I don't feel like wiping my butt after I take a dump? Do I need someone to do it for me? If I don't do my planning well enough, I'm screwed. My fault. My parents started out their married life owing $150 (I'm told it was a big sum at the time) and they made themselves so that they would not have to depend on their children. My other set of friends that have adopted me? Ditto. They started out as a carpenter and a clerk.

Common wisdom now is not to rely entirely on one source of retirement income. Anyone expecting to be comfortable on SS alone is nuts. SS is just one leg of a retirement 'tripod'. The other 2 legs are personal investments, and pension plans or 401Ks. The expectation is that 3 different kinds of income sources will provide reasonable resilience against bad market conditions and investment snafus, just like a tripod sits steady on almost any kind of terrain (a corny analogy, I know).

Like it or not, some people simply cannot or will not invest for retirement. Might as well throw them a few crumbs to survive on instead of having them begging and fouling up public spaces. For the rest of us, its the 3rd leg on the tripod.

aklim · #**133** 03-27-2008, 04:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by raymr

Common wisdom now is not to rely entirely on one source of retirement income. Anyone expecting to be comfortable on SS alone is nuts. SS is just one leg of a retirement 'tripod'. The other 2 legs are personal investments, and pension plans or 401Ks. The expectation is that 3 different kinds of income sources will provide reasonable resilience against bad market conditions and investment snafus, just like a tripod sits steady on almost any kind of terrain (a corny analogy, I know).

Like it or not, some people simply cannot or will not invest for retirement. Might as well throw them a few crumbs to survive on instead of having them begging and fouling up public spaces. For the rest of us, its the 3rd leg on the tripod.

I wouldn't rely on it. I already told the wife that whatever money we get from SS is my hooker money. She put the kibosh on that. Only think I can have is my own SS to use for hooker money. My tripod is what we can invest in, save and our pension plans.

Personally, I'm not concerned about those that cannot or will not invest for retirement. Having them begging in the streets will do wonders for the young who think that somebody owes them a living and that they will be taken care of. Maybe it will give them the motivation to excel.

Japan is also having some issues with their youth. Back after WWII, their backs were to the sea. They worked insanely hard. Look where they are now. Problem is their youth are spoiled and are starting to protest about hard work. Much like our youth. Perhaps seeing someone starving in the streets will provide some fire under their butts to get them going in the right direction

mikemover · #**134** 03-27-2008, 04:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dculkin

Can't have it both ways. Either we have the "idiot-proofing", as you put it, or we allow people to opt out. We need everybody to pay in and we need a certain number of people to die before they get anything back. Otherwise the numbers don't work. At least that's how I understand it.

You are correct, Sir!

And THAT is why it is a flawed system, an unfair system, and a doomed system.

....At least that's how I understand it....

Mike

MS Fowler · #**135** 03-27-2008, 04:47 PM

aklim,
All your wife has to do is to keep tight control of the Viagra ( happy 10th birthday!). By the time you collect SS you will need the little blue pill.