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  #16  
Old 02-03-2012, 06:04 PM
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Just a little creative book keeping...it makes it look good when it really isn't.

Record 1.2 Million People Fall Out Of Labor Force In One Month, Labor Force Participation Rate Tumbles To Fresh 30 Year Low | ZeroHedge
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A month ago, we joked when we said that for Obama to get the unemployment rate to negative by election time, all he has to do is to crush the labor force participation rate to about 55%. Looks like the good folks at the BLS heard us: it appears that the people not in the labor force exploded by an unprecedented record 1.2 million. No, that's not a typo: 1.2 million people dropped out of the labor force in one month! So as the labor force increased from 153.9 million to 154.4 million, the non institutional population increased by 242.3 million meaning, those not in the labor force surged from 86.7 million to 87.9 million. Which means that the civilian labor force tumbled to a fresh 30 year low of 63.7% as the BLS is seriously planning on eliminating nearly half of the available labor pool from the unemployment calculation. As for the quality of jobs, as withholding taxes roll over Year over year, it can only mean that the US is replacing high paying FIRE jobs with low paying construction and manufacturing. So much for the improvement.


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  #17  
Old 02-03-2012, 06:05 PM
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Originally Posted by LarryBible View Post
Hmmm..... That report doesn't seem to factor in the three million that have given up on trying to find a job. Of course if that fact were advertised I guess it wouldn't reflect well on our politicians in DC. Spin can correct everything.
Yeah, I forgot to add "spin" to what they'd blame it on....I guess the DOW being at it's highest point since '08 is spin too. Darn.
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  #18  
Old 02-03-2012, 06:10 PM
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Originally Posted by elchivito View Post
Yeah, I forgot to add "spin" to what they'd blame it on....I guess the DOW being at it's highest point since '08 is spin too. Darn.
Nasdaq is, Dow isn't -- it was a bit higher in the spring of this year. Composition of the Dow was also changed 2-3 times since early 2008. Furthermore, owing to the bearded counterfeiter's inflation strategy, it's actually lower in REAL DOLLAR terms than you'd think.

Besides, entities with enough spare dough to trade with aren't the same ones that are worried about unemployment, sadly. Stock market runup = concentration of wealth.
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  #19  
Old 02-03-2012, 06:15 PM
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Originally Posted by spdrun View Post
Nasdaq is, Dow isn't -- it was a bit higher in the spring of this year. Composition of the Dow was also changed 2-3 times since early 2008. Furthermore, owing to the bearded counterfeiter's inflation strategy, it's actually lower in REAL DOLLAR terms than you'd think.

Besides, entities with enough spare dough to trade with aren't the same ones that are worried about unemployment, sadly. Stock market runup = concentration of wealth.
please give the pirate a lesson in breaking up his text into seperated paragraphs.
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  #20  
Old 02-03-2012, 06:17 PM
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Originally Posted by panZZer View Post
please give the pirate a lesson in breaking up his text into seperated paragraphs.
Is that all you got?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G2gTFBhQ7Ko
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  #21  
Old 02-03-2012, 06:58 PM
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Originally Posted by LarryBible View Post
Hmmm..... That report doesn't seem to factor in the three million that have given up on trying to find a job. Of course if that fact were advertised I guess it wouldn't reflect well on our politicians in DC. Spin can correct everything.
Or it could be because other reports before it, which it is being compared against, didn't either.

I found the linked text to be "spin free" . . . so, where are you seeing the expression of rotational force in the article?
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  #22  
Old 02-03-2012, 07:10 PM
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Originally Posted by MTI View Post
Or it could be because other reports before it, which it is being compared against, didn't either.
Larry actually raises a valid point -- a newly unemployed person is more likely to self-describe as looking for a job, vs a person who's been unemployed for a while with an employed spouse may choose not to look for work, and perhaps to move to a cheaper place.

This jibes with the lower and steadily dropping % of people in the labor force. BTW, I don't necessarily see anything wrong with more one-working-parent families, especially if housing costs have dropped enough to support that. (Low mortgage rate + housing cost dropping by easily 50% in some areas can save a family $1500-2000/mo easily, which may be enough for one partner not to work.)

On the other hand, if that means that more young people are unemployed, living at home, and sort of pretending to study to pass time, this is a bad thing.
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  #23  
Old 02-03-2012, 07:17 PM
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Originally Posted by spdrun View Post
BTW, I don't necessarily see anything wrong with more one-working-parent families, especially if housing costs have dropped enough to support that. (Low mortgage rate + housing cost dropping by easily 50% in some areas can save a family $1500-2000/mo easily, which may be enough for one partner not to work.)
It sounds wonderful, but the reality is that most single (or for that matter, dual) wage earner families cannot qualify for the mortgages under the present guidelines. That inability to buy, compounded by the rise in rental values, places many in a squeeze. There's lots of homes for sale, just not enough of a critical mass of owner occupants who apparently can afford rent for the time being, but can't qualify for a conventional mortgage.
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  #24  
Old 02-03-2012, 11:27 PM
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Originally Posted by Botnst View Post
He turned me into a Newt!

(uh-oh. I have a bad feeling about having written that.... Incoming!)
A Newt?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fr8DIg3oHFI
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  #25  
Old 02-04-2012, 09:10 AM
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Originally Posted by Botnst View Post
He turned me into a Newt!

(uh-oh. I have a bad feeling about having written that.... Incoming!)
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Originally Posted by Skippy View Post

Close but for some reason I was thinking more along the lines of this....

Jeeves and Wooster - The Trouble With Love - YouTube
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  #26  
Old 02-04-2012, 11:05 PM
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Originally Posted by MTI View Post
Obama? Why would he get any credit? Those who were hoping for bad news are actually hoping that the nation fails.
Truth sucks....

But does anyone believe an “official” unemployment rate of 8.3 percent really gives an accurate picture of the U.S. labor market? Even though the unemployment rate fell, so did the labor force participation rate (as more Americans became discouraged and gave up looking for work). Here’s what that means:

1. If the size of the U.S. labor force as a share of the total population was the same as it was when Barack Obama took office—65.7 percent then vs. 63.7 percent today—the U-3 unemployment rate would be 11.0 percent.

2. But let’s not go all the way back to January 2009. In January 2011, the unemployment rate was 9.1 percent with a participation rate of 64.2 percent. If that were the participation rate today, the unemployment rate would be 8.9 percent, instead of 8.3 percent. As an analysis from Hamilton Place Strategies concludes, “Most of the shift of the past year is due not to the improvement in the labor market, but the continued drop in participation in the labor force.”


Why the official 8.3 percent unemployment rate is a phony number—and what it means for Obama’s reelection « The Enterprise Blog
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  #27  
Old 02-04-2012, 11:36 PM
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4. Then there’s the broader, U-6 measure of unemployment which includes the discouraged plus part-timers who wish they had full time work. That unemployment rate is still a sky-high 15.1 percent.
Like a college graduate with multiple ASE certs who does warehouse work an average of 26 hours a week?

Raises hand

Now if I keep complaining long enough, maybe I'll actually do what I keep saying I'm going to do and aggressively seek a better job (But then all of sudden the weather turns nice-ish and I hop on my motorbike instead)
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  #28  
Old 02-05-2012, 12:52 AM
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Another prime example of government spin is the way they calculate inflation - "excluding energy and food"?

Who the hell do they think they're fooling with THAT one?

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