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  #1  
Old 07-05-2013, 06:37 PM
Pooka
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 664
Forbes article on Gold....

I am still holding out for $950. It should be there before the end of the year.

FOCUS: Gold Prices Could Drop To $1,000 As Employment, Economy Improve - Forbes

Last edited by Pooka; 07-05-2013 at 07:03 PM.
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  #2  
Old 07-05-2013, 06:39 PM
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Join Date: May 2011
Location: NYC
Posts: 5,103
Here's hoping that the end of QE3 will drop asset prices (stocks, homes) in general as interest rates rise. It will be nice to have a pullback in winter 2013-4, not that NJ or metro NY are hurting for lack of cheap foreclosures.

I'm not convinced that the economy is doing terribly well -- Ben-Shalom has just succeeded in blowing a bunch of bubbles, some (stocks) bigger than others (real estate in Phoenix, LA, and SFO). Glad that Obama has gently given him the boot with his comments about him staying longer than expected or desired, perhaps Obama is less of Wall Street's bendover-b*tch than has been evident.
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  #3  
Old 07-05-2013, 07:02 PM
Pooka
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 664
Some random economic things to consider.....

Housing prices are holding steady due to rising rates for loans. This is normal since they were rising on a national basis. I just checked the prices on two homes I own in rural Oklahoma. One went up by 8% and one is up by 16%. Both are located near active areas of oil production.

More jobs were created during this quarter, by about 100,000, than many predicted. Perhaps these are summer jobs, but the jobs report is supposed to be seasonly corrected.

The Sequester is causing cutbacks here and there now, but I think we will really see it kick in during this next quarter. But consumer confidence is up.

The US Dollar is slowly gaining on other currencies.

Inflation is as close to nothing as I can ever remember, and even all the 'Fed printing money' stories can do nothing to cause it to increase.

By the way... I always get a laugh out of people who do not understand the Fed and also decrease the money supply whenever they want. Some folks just don't understand how all of this stuff works and depend on some 'news service' that is trying to sell gold to explain it to them.
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  #4  
Old 07-05-2013, 07:18 PM
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Posts: 5,103
Remember that inflation metrics are f**ked in the US. Core inflation:
(1) Excludes food prices
(2) Excludes home prices -- since it ass-u-mes everyone is a renter and no one wants to buy (recent rises in home prices in some cities == inflation, despite Fedspeak)
(3) Excludes energy prices (though those have been low by recent standards in the past six months)

Also keep in mind that some asset prices have been massively inflated. Stocks above 2007 highs. Property prices up higher than bubble levels in San Francisco. Quite a bit of the printed money has also gone abroad, exporting inflation.

Fortunately, this money hasn't hit my local (low-end NYC, suburban NJ, suburban NY counties) property market yet, and higher rates might keep the stupid money out.
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  #5  
Old 07-05-2013, 07:51 PM
TwitchKitty's Avatar
Just fix it
 
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Location: Varies
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Toyota Land Cruiser $80,000, gold stays high, dollar stays low.
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  #6  
Old 07-07-2013, 12:52 PM
Pooka
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 664
On the average a troy ounce of gold costs $1,116 to produce in South Africa, and The RSA has one of the lowest paid work forces in the industry.

Currently 60% of RSA's gold producers are losing money.

Gold sales in India, which are among the strongest in the world for cultural reasons, has come to a standstill as everyone waits to see where the price goes. With no sales it is going down as dealers unload before it gets worth even less.

If the Fed stops increasing the money supply, and there is every reason to think it will, the price is predicted to cave.

And the US Dollar? It is normally measured against six other world currencies, and it had been rising over the past month by about 2% a week.

And the best news about the US Dollar increase? It should hold the price on new Mercedes!
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  #7  
Old 07-07-2013, 09:26 PM
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Posts: 77
Is Gold Really Worth $40,000 Per Ounce? - Forbes

Forbes article on gold.
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  #8  
Old 07-07-2013, 09:27 PM
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Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 77
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pooka View Post
Some random economic things to consider.....

Housing prices are holding steady due to rising rates for loans. This is normal since they were rising on a national basis. I just checked the prices on two homes I own in rural Oklahoma. One went up by 8% and one is up by 16%. Both are located near active areas of oil production.

More jobs were created during this quarter, by about 100,000, than many predicted. Perhaps these are summer jobs, but the jobs report is supposed to be seasonly corrected.

The Sequester is causing cutbacks here and there now, but I think we will really see it kick in during this next quarter. But consumer confidence is up.

The US Dollar is slowly gaining on other currencies.

Inflation is as close to nothing as I can ever remember, and even all the 'Fed printing money' stories can do nothing to cause it to increase.

By the way... I always get a laugh out of people who do not understand the Fed and also decrease the money supply whenever they want. Some folks just don't understand how all of this stuff works and depend on some 'news service' that is trying to sell gold to explain it to them.
Holy crap! 2 whole houses?!?!?! Well, that's damned fine market analysis, I tell you what.

15 Signs That The Quality Of Jobs In America Is Going Downhill Really Fast

Clueless? You betcha. Those people who don't understand the fed...
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  #9  
Old 07-07-2013, 09:29 PM
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Posts: 77
JP Morgan Vault Gold Drops To New Record Low; Brinks Gold Plunges By 24% In One Day | Zero Hedge

Damn good thing paper GLD isn't being manipulated. Then we'd be in real trouble.
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  #10  
Old 07-07-2013, 09:54 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pooka View Post
Gold sales in India, which are among the strongest in the world for cultural reasons, has come to a standstill as everyone waits to see where the price goes. With no sales it is going down as dealers unload before it gets worth even less.
Yep... Everyone's waiting to see. Not discouraged, and prevented, from buying it.
Latest Indian gold buying ban: credit card instalments | MINING.com
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/06/india-gold-idUSD8N0E900920130606
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  #11  
Old 09-08-2013, 02:14 PM
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Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 77
Quote:
From JPM:

Commodities: We have turned tactically long commodities and OW vs. cash and fixed income.



The strong rebound in J.P. Morgan’s global manufacturing PMI, improving physical demand and our economists’ first upgrade of Chinese growth expectations since February make us turn tactically overweight. This is especially important for base metals and copper in particular given China’s very large share of global metal demand and thus, we go overweight base metals and copper in addition to our longstanding energy overweight. We also close our underweight in precious metals given positive momentum, cleaner positions and the impending start to the debt ceiling negotiations. In our commodities portfolio, this leaves us OW energy and base metals, neutral precious metals and UW agriculture, where high prices coupled with better weather conditions compared to last year have led to a large increase in supply expectations.
It’s Official – Goldman Sachs Was Buying GLD While Advicing To Sell | Gold Silver Worlds

Quote:
“In Q2, Goldman Sachs added a stunning (and record) 3.7 million ‘shares’ of GLD. As Paulson dumped his GLD, Goldman lapped it up to become the ETF’s 7th largest holder.”
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  #12  
Old 09-08-2013, 03:26 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spdrun View Post
Remember that inflation metrics are f**ked in the US. Core inflation:
(1) Excludes food prices
(2) Excludes home prices -- since it ass-u-mes everyone is a renter and no one wants to buy (recent rises in home prices in some cities == inflation, despite Fedspeak)
(3) Excludes energy prices (though those have been low by recent standards in the past six months)

Also keep in mind that some asset prices have been massively inflated. Stocks above 2007 highs. Property prices up higher than bubble levels in San Francisco. Quite a bit of the printed money has also gone abroad, exporting inflation.

Fortunately, this money hasn't hit my local (low-end NYC, suburban NJ, suburban NY counties) property market yet, and higher rates might keep the stupid money out.
US core inflation is figured on the cost of
(1) shoe laces
(2) coat hangers
(3) chewing gum

Last edited by sloride; 09-08-2013 at 03:43 PM.
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  #13  
Old 09-08-2013, 03:39 PM
Pooka
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 664
Gold is currently at $1388. I am guessing the trouble in Syria is pushing this up some, but the 'easing' the Fed is doing is still with us. As long as money is cheap there is fear of inflation even if inflation is not taking place.

I am still not buying gold. Just too many factors that are out of my control.
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  #14  
Old 09-08-2013, 06:33 PM
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It's the Republican's fault.

Wait, what was the question?
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An alimentary canal with a big appetite at one end and
no sense of responsibility at the other'
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  #15  
Old 09-08-2013, 10:05 PM
Skid Row Joe's Avatar
PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spdrun View Post
Remember that inflation metrics are f**ked in the US. Core inflation:
(1) Excludes food prices
(2) Excludes home prices -- since it ass-u-mes everyone is a renter and no one wants to buy (recent rises in home prices in some cities == inflation, despite Fedspeak)
(3) Excludes energy prices (though those have been low by recent standards in the past six months)

Also keep in mind that some asset prices have been massively inflated. Stocks above 2007 highs. Property prices up higher than bubble levels in San Francisco. Quite a bit of the printed money has also gone abroad, exporting inflation.

Fortunately, this money hasn't hit my local (low-end NYC, suburban NJ, suburban NY counties) property market yet, and higher rates might keep the stupid money out.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sloride View Post
US core inflation is figured on the cost of
(1) shoe laces
(2) coat hangers
(3) chewing gum
Great synopsis! ^^^^

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