What will the stats look like when peeps who grow accustomed to AB later get behind the wheel of the real deal?

Design the system to deliver an electric shock to the right nipple when activated, so people won't want to grow too reliant on it.

Don’t have a direct answer, but I read a report that stated roughly half of all new vehicles sold are off the road within 8 years. Based, on that, most of the transition will be pretty quick. If the insurance industry gets behind it and starts puni$hing people for not having the newer safety feature sets, that will go some way to speed the process.

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Toyota is a leader only because their drivers block everyone behind them. Oh what a feeling.

Yet I keep hearing reports that people (maybe the other half like myself) are keeping their vehicles longer. But I'm sure, between the insurance industry and the government, it's only a matter of time before 'old' cars get regulated out of existence. Perhaps they'll prohibit the registration of human-controlled vehicles, like they do now with ones that fail smog-testing. The manufacturers are already making them so complex that repairs become impractical after about ten years, or even when the warranty is up. Failed 8-speed automatics and CVTs (which I've heard have been very troublesome) will total a car. I guess we're in the era of disposable technology.
Maybe I won't be around to enjoy the next new world order, whatever form it takes.

Happy Motoring, Mark

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DrDKW

I actually doubt it -- it will just come down to attrition. You can register a Model A Ford as a regular car (not a classic) in basically all of the US and drive it daily, if you really want to.

The sheep like their modern conveniences, though, so they'll buy new cars. Truly autonomous cars are a longer way off than you'd think. We haven't even got it right on trains and subway vehicles, that operate in one degree of freedom (accelerate/brake) let alone two like a car.

Also, I'd suspect that future cars will be SIMPLER than current cars. Electric cars and hybrids actually have simpler transmissions and can have simpler brakes (a large portion of the braking force comes from the motors) than current fossil fool cars. In an electric car, you end up with a single gear set, a motor armature, and a differential. That's it.

Autonomous steering and braking = two actuators, maybe four for redundancy. Plus a computer that might well be a standard item across vehicles (think something like a Bosch Jetronic ECU).