Iran test-fires missiles in Persian Gulf - Page 6 - PeachParts Mercedes-Benz Forum

Txjake · #76 07-10-2008, 03:08 PM

Part II of the gaining control of the Persian Gulf is about to occur. This has been on the books since the Cold War and one reason why we took over Iraq and are not leaving anytime soon.

DieselAddict · #77 07-10-2008, 03:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aklim

If nukes were involved, for a short time, it will be. Small scale conventional attacks, I doubt it.

Why do you doubt oil could go to $200 a barrel if war breaks out? Israel's recent mini-exercise alone caused oil to shoot up by 5-10 bucks. I would say $200 is a very conservative estimate if real war breaks out (without nukes).

aklim · #78 07-10-2008, 03:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DieselAddict

Why do you doubt oil could go to $200 a barrel if war breaks out? Israel's recent mini-exercise alone caused oil to shoot up by 5-10 bucks. I would say $200 is a very conservative estimate if real war breaks out (without nukes).

It could go there but I doubt it is in OPEC's interest for it to go there. As such, they might just up the pump and lower it. Didn't they just do something like that to bring it down a little since too high an oil price might not be in their best interest?

DieselAddict · #79 07-10-2008, 03:32 PM

From what I've read most oil-producing countries are already near peak production. Saudi Arabia still has some room, but what good is more pumping if they can't get the oil out of there. Iran would most certainly block all shipping in the Gulf if war broke out.

aklim · #80 07-10-2008, 03:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DieselAddict

From what I've read most oil-producing countries are already near peak production. Saudi Arabia still has some room, but what good is more pumping if they can't get the oil out of there. Iran would most certainly block all shipping in the Gulf if war broke out.

Now if we had our own oil supply, even for 3 yrs, we could tough it out, couldn't we? An argument for having our own supply. Still, do you assume for 1 moment that the other states are going to idly sit by and let Iran block the money coming in? I think their threat is just saber rattling. Oil don't go out, money don't come in. What will Saudi and other states there do? Just sit by passively and shut down their bread and butter. Open up a casino? Water Park?

Txjake · #81 07-10-2008, 03:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DieselAddict

From what I've read most oil-producing countries are already near peak production. Saudi Arabia still has some room, but what good is more pumping if they can't get the oil out of there. Iran would most certainly block all shipping in the Gulf if war broke out.

what makes you think after the first 3 to 5 days of a conventional war with Iran that they would have the ability to control the Straits of Hormuz or much of anything in the gulf? Our first efforts would be the destruction of their navy and air force and seizing of all areas that affect the conduct of commerce in the gulf. Irany could not control it short of popping a nuke denying everybody access for a while and that would be the death knell for the mullahs and perhaps a great part of the country.....

DieselAddict · #82 07-10-2008, 03:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aklim

Now if we had our own oil supply, even for 3 yrs, we could tough it out, couldn't we? An argument for having our own supply. Still, do you assume for 1 moment that the other states are going to idly sit by and let Iran block the money coming in? I think their threat is just saber rattling. Oil don't go out, money don't come in. What will Saudi and other states there do? Just sit by passively and shut down their bread and butter. Open up a casino? Water Park?

It most likely wouldn't be permanent, but even a few minutes would be enough for oil to skyrocket. Are you saying it wouldn't cause any havoc? Iran is the most powerful country in the ME (probably after Israel) and there's not a damn thing SA or any other Arab country could do. I'm sure the US navy could resume control of the strait eventually, but not until after oil prices had gone through the roof and caused widespread panic.

Again we do have our own supply, don't we? Or have you already forgotten that inconvenient fact? We just consume way too damn much to ever stop being dependent on imports. What's more, oil is priced internationally. Even if our own oil supply isn't interrupted, oil prices will certainly skyrocket for everyone if war breaks out there.

DieselAddict · #83 07-10-2008, 03:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Txjake

what makes you think after the first 3 to 5 days of a conventional war with Iran that they would have the ability to control the Straits of Hormuz or much of anything in the gulf? Our first efforts would be the destruction of their navy and air force and seizing of all areas that affect the conduct of commerce in the gulf. Irany could not control it short of popping a nuke denying everybody access for a while and that would be the death knell for the mullahs and perhaps a great part of the country.....

They do have surface-to-sea missiles. Our navy would be sitting ducks. Even if Iran isn't able to block the strait oil prices will go through the roof. It will be a feast for the speculators.

aklim · #84 07-10-2008, 03:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DieselAddict

It most likely wouldn't be permanent, but even a few minutes would be enough for oil to skyrocket. Are you saying it wouldn't cause any havoc? Iran is the most powerful country in the ME (probably after Israel) and there's not a damn thing SA or any other Arab country could do. I'm sure the US navy could resume control of the strait eventually, but not until after oil prices had gone through the roof and caused widespread panic.

Again we do have our own supply, don't we?

Even if our own oil supply isn't interrupted, oil prices will certainly skyrocket for everyone if war break out there.

It would cause some havoc but if Iran can be crippled or taken out, it would be worth it. SA alone, maybe not. However, can Iran win a multi pronged war against Israel and still keep the gulf shut down without other neighbors taking offense and shooting at them? I think not.

More doesn't hurt.

2 issues. Oil at your figure of $200 a barrel or oil at $200 a barrel and you still can't easily get it.

aklim · #85 07-10-2008, 03:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DieselAddict

They do have surface-to-sea missiles. Our navy would be sitting ducks.

Even if Iran isn't able to block the strait oil prices will go through the roof. It will be a feast for the speculators.

We do have other branches that have the resources to take care of it. Still, do you think the other countries are going to sit by while you take the food out of their mouths? Alone, they might not be able to stop Iran. As a group, who knows.

For how long? I would not be worried if it hits $200 for a day or two. If it drags on, that might be a different issue.

DieselAddict · #86 07-10-2008, 04:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aklim

It would cause some havoc but if Iran can be crippled or taken out, it would be worth it. SA alone, maybe not. However, can Iran win a multi pronged war against Israel and still keep the gulf shut down without other neighbors taking offense and shooting at them? I think not.

More doesn't hurt.

2 issues. Oil at your figure of $200 a barrel or oil at $200 a barrel and you still can't easily get it.

They irony here is that I'd love to see $200 a barrel oil, yet I'm wise enough to be against any unprovoked attack on Iran. I know you don't like to see higher oil prices, yet you just want go all out and bomb the crap out of Iran (or let Israel do it) which will guarantee that oil goes through the roof.

Txjake · #87 07-10-2008, 04:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DieselAddict

They do have surface-to-sea missiles. Our navy would be sitting ducks. Even if Iran isn't able to block the strait oil prices will go through the roof. It will be a feast for the speculators.

this is laughable. current tactics would not call for the fleet to go anywhere near the Gulf to carry out operations to seize it. we would launch from the Indian Ocena and the Med with enough carrier planes that the air war would be over in maybe two days. Cruise missles launched from SUBS in either ocean would take care of the STS missles, escpecially when backed up by B2 and B52 attacks from so far above the Iranians would not know what hit them. The Iranians are somewhat prepared for a tactical war, but no way for a strategic one. Once the missles are neutralized, the 82nd or 101st would seize key areas and the war would move north.....

DieselAddict · #88 07-10-2008, 04:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Txjake

this is laughable. current tactics would not call for the fleet to go anywhere near the Gulf to carry out operations to seize it. we would launch from the Indian Ocena and the Med with enough carrier planes that the air war would be over in maybe two days. Cruise missles launched from SUBS in either ocean would take care of the STS missles, escpecially when backed up by B2 and B52 attacks from so far above the Iranians would not know what hit them. The Iranians are somewhat prepared for a tactical war, but no way for a strategic one. Once the missles are neutralized, the 82nd or 101st would seize key areas and the war would move north.....

You mean ground invasion? You make it sound so easy. As if you haven't noticed we're still stuck in Iraq.

aklim · #89 07-10-2008, 04:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DieselAddict

They irony here is that I'd love to see $200 a barrel oil, yet I'm wise enough to be against any unprovoked attack on Iran. I know you don't like to see higher oil prices, yet you just want go all out and bomb the crap out of Iran (or let Israel do it) which will guarantee that oil goes through the roof.

So if they do, we both get our wish. Still it won't guarantee anything.