If you are extremely careful, the dowel can probably get you close enough to put the cam sprocket on the right tooth. It would not be accurate enough to find TDC within around 3 or 4 degrees. There are ways to find TDC accurately without expensive tools, but a dial indicator is pretty much a requirement. On the other hand, I know a guy who can do it with a slip of paper.

I'm not familiar enough with your engine to know if the cam timing is adjusted with offset keys, and if that is part of what you are trying to accomplish. For that the dowel by itself will be inadequate.

You will also need to rotate the crank to TDC on the stroke that lines up the rotor with the number one ignition wire. You could be out 180 degrees on the rotor, in which case you have to rotate the crank another full revolution.

Again, not knowing your engine, I would think that there is still a reference mark on the timing cover someplace to align with the damper degree markings. The TDC pickup should be looking for a little pin or something, the degree marks are there for humans to look at, not sensors.

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1987 W201 190D