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  #1  
Old 07-08-2017, 10:44 PM
edge's Avatar
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Tesla Model 3 for longevity?

Now that most of the Mercedes diesels built in the 80's are at the end of their useful lives, what do you diesel heads think about the upcoming Tesla Model 3? The electric drivetrain is a simple design that has less than 20 moving parts. The cost of fuel is 1/3 the cost of gasoline. It is purported to go 0-60 mph in 5.6 seconds. At $35 with a $10K tax credit in most fed and states, you have a slick car that cost $25,000 that could last a million miles. Discuss!
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  #2  
Old 07-08-2017, 11:10 PM
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I wouldn't say they'll last 1M miles. Maybe in theory, but in actual practice, I doubt it. The build quality of the previous models has been shocking to say the least (especially for such expensive vehicles), it is one of the biggest knocks against the Tesla brand. In their defense, it takes any manufacturer a while to work the bugs out and they have been trying.

The biggest issue is the cost of that fuel. Right now it's 1/3 the cost of gasoline. What happens when everyone else jumps on the electric car bandwagon? With our grid infrastructure already strained with our current loads, it simply isn't going to cope with everyone on the block charging their Tesla in the garage every night. Without any new base-load power plants coming online (wind and solar are considered "peakers"), don't expect the status-quo to change any time soon.

The other biggie - that battery pack. Not cheap, doesn't last forever, and talk about an environmental nightmare both to build AND to recycle!

Electric cars are a great idea (and were around BEFORE internal combustion engine powered cars, but that's another discussion), they have very real uses and provide very real pollution reduction, but they are not the panacea that they're made out to be.
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  #3  
Old 07-08-2017, 11:11 PM
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I do like the simplicity of the drivetrain. Tesla is probably one of the best new cars on the market. It's nice that electric power plants are being explored. But, it's not retro-looking enough for my taste, I guess. I'd probably want it to be even simpler and with different styling. I also like the sound of my diesel engine.

It's not bad for a new car, but I don't have any desire to own one over the car I currently have.
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  #4  
Old 07-09-2017, 01:29 AM
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I will race a model 3 from san Diego to san Francisco any time with my 70-ish hp 190D N/A. Let see who get there first. I am sure all internal combustion engine cars will be phased out eventually. Hopefully it is still a long time away.
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  #5  
Old 07-09-2017, 02:35 AM
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Ah, an EV thread on a die hard diesel forum...

So many untrue myths when it comes to EVs that I see time and time again. Charging a national EV fleet at night isn't a problem, night time is when when there's the least load on the grid (at the moment). Charging software can control when to turn charging on and off and it's possible to use EV batteries as grid storage for peaks if the owner wishes.
Li-ion battery longevity is hell of a lot better than most think, a Model S got to 200,000 miles with only a 6% capacity loss! People always bring up how bad producing batteries is for the environment, ignoring of course the oil refining industry in its entirety. Then there's the old "EVs still burn coal", so burning hydrocarbons at 30% peak thermal efficiency in very limited circumstances with an ICE vehicle is better..../s


A new EV? Not for me. I hope to convert a W123 to electric though (using Leaf parts perhaps).
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  #6  
Old 07-09-2017, 07:59 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NZScott View Post
Ah, an EV thread on a die hard diesel forum...

So many untrue myths when it comes to EVs that I see time and time again. Charging a national EV fleet at night isn't a problem, night time is when when there's the least load on the grid (at the moment). Charging software can control when to turn charging on and off and it's possible to use EV batteries as grid storage for peaks if the owner wishes.
Li-ion battery longevity is hell of a lot better than most think, a Model S got to 200,000 miles with only a 6% capacity loss! People always bring up how bad producing batteries is for the environment, ignoring of course the oil refining industry in its entirety. Then there's the old "EVs still burn coal", so burning hydrocarbons at 30% peak thermal efficiency in very limited circumstances with an ICE vehicle is better..../s


A new EV? Not for me. I hope to convert a W123 to electric though (using Leaf parts perhaps).
I also see a lot of myths about electric vehicles floating around the internet.

1/3 the cost? To charge a 60 kw/hr battery pack at standard USA electric rates would cost about $7.80 today. The Model 3 has an advertised range of 235 miles, and I'd be willing to bet it might be able to get that if its used exclusively in its 'sweet spot' of performance IE shorter trips in a city/suburban environment. People that are using Teslas and other EV on longer-range and higher speed drives are not going to get anywhere near 235 mile range. Think a Model 3 driving on an interstate highway at 80MPH when its at sub-freezing temps is going to go 235 miles? Would you want to use the last 50 miles of range if you're driving in a rural environment at night? Not likely.

Also keep in mind that the $7.80 to go 235 miles doesn't currently include a penny of federal or state road tax. If we wanted to be fair we'd have to include the costs that the diesel drivers are currently paying for road use tax into the equation right? That's currently somewhere around .35-.50 cents per gallon depending on where you live.

A Model 3 sized car with a modern CDI engine would return at least 45-50 MPG. Assuming the lower end 45MPG and current diesel fuel cost of $2.30 per gallon it would cost me around $12 for the trip. With the electric car it would be $7.80 for the juice + $2.15 for road tax or around $10.

It's less but not really all that much less, and you'd have to be willing to put up with some pretty significant limitations and inconveniences that don't exist with the CDI vehicle.

I've also read about the Model S that went 200K miles and only lost 6% of its battery capacity due to battery fade. Of course Li-on battery life lifecycle is a well-understood issue and if you use the standard charge/discharge expected cycle life you'll find that at about 150K miles the battery packs should be down to about 60% capacity. Everything I've ever bought/used that has a Li-on battery pack has exhibited the exact same battery fade issues as the charge/discharge cycles add up. Not really sure why Teslas are apparently immune to this issue but apparently they are? I'd like to hear more about how Elon has side-stepped the physics of battery fade. If he has he should license and sell the technology to iPhone battery makers and cordless tool battery makers because that technology would truly be 'disruptive'.

As far as your EV's, coal and 30% thermal efficiency modern CDI internal combustion engine argument I suggest you do a bit more research about the thermal efficiency of modern power plants vs modern CDI engines. They are pretty much identical.

If the Model 3 is such a game changer and its disruptive technology how come the Chevy Volt which has the exact same specifications and costs as the Model 3 is languishing on the sales floor?
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Last edited by vstech; 07-09-2017 at 11:43 AM.
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  #7  
Old 07-09-2017, 09:05 AM
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I have a friend who owns the standard and expensive Tesla. He has been very happy with the build quality of the car; says it is about the best he has ever owned. However he has to plan all of his out of town trips around the locations of charging stations.

That seems to be his major gripe.
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  #8  
Old 07-09-2017, 10:34 AM
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Our model 3 is scheduled to arrive Q2 of 2018. Just in time to replace the Kia EV lease. Once you've owned an EV for a while theres really no going back. Its so much cheaper and easier to own than anything with an internal combustion engine over the long run. its a real shame Mercedes has failed to deliver a real EV so far.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ah-kay View Post
I will race a model 3 from san Diego to san Francisco any time with my 70-ish hp 190D N/A. Let see who get there first. I am sure all internal combustion engine cars will be phased out eventually. Hopefully it is still a long time away.
Let me know when your 190D has autopilot. I've got a few good movies lined up for the drive.
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  #9  
Old 07-09-2017, 10:40 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Diseasel300 View Post
I wouldn't say they'll last 1M miles. Maybe in theory, but in actual practice, I doubt it. The build quality of the previous models has been shocking to say the least (especially for such expensive vehicles), it is one of the biggest knocks against the Tesla brand. In their defense, it takes any manufacturer a while to work the bugs out and they have been trying.

The biggest issue is the cost of that fuel. Right now it's 1/3 the cost of gasoline. What happens when everyone else jumps on the electric car bandwagon? With our grid infrastructure already strained with our current loads, it simply isn't going to cope with everyone on the block charging their Tesla in the garage every night. Without any new base-load power plants coming online (wind and solar are considered "peakers"), don't expect the status-quo to change any time soon.

The other biggie - that battery pack. Not cheap, doesn't last forever, and talk about an environmental nightmare both to build AND to recycle!

Electric cars are a great idea (and were around BEFORE internal combustion engine powered cars, but that's another discussion), they have very real uses and provide very real pollution reduction, but they are not the panacea that they're made out to be.


This has been the fear mongering talk for decades. Our electricity use has DECREASED due to advancements in technology. Don't live in fear.
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  #10  
Old 07-09-2017, 10:49 AM
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Originally Posted by TimFreeh View Post

If the Model 3 is such a game changer and its disruptive technology how come the Chevy Bolt which has the exact same specifications and costs as the Model 3 is languishing on the sales floor?
Because it's a POS GM car. There's about 50 ways I can expand on that. There are currently over 400,000 Model 3's on pre-order (deposit paid customers). Gm will NEVER sell 400k Volts ever in their lives.


And as far as your charging math though - where are you, the Communist State of CA? Those numbers I'm seeing you post look like ~.10/KWh. National average for off-peak is significantly less. And then there's Teslas Superchargers and any other public use chargers that may be available.
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Old 07-09-2017, 10:55 AM
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I was just chatting with a snow bird with a new Quattroporte, "I can't spend $100K on a car that doesn't sound like a Maserati." Do Teslas mind not moving for half a year?

x2 to electrifying our rides. Someone make a battery the size and weight of a 617 and a motor that slips into a 722.3. Optional WVO range extender that fits into the fuel tank.

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  #12  
Old 07-09-2017, 10:57 AM
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Originally Posted by tjts1 View Post
Our model 3 is scheduled to arrive Q2 of 2018. Just in time to replace the Kia EV lease. Once you've owned an EV for a while theres really no going back. Its so much cheaper and easier to own than anything with an internal combustion engine over the long run. its a real shame Mercedes has failed to deliver a real EV so far.

Let me know when your 190D has autopilot. I've got a few good movies lined up for the drive.
Really? I don't want to have my head chopped off. If i want to watch DVD, I would fly. I am not getting an EV vehicle any time soon so I will sign off.
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  #13  
Old 07-09-2017, 11:20 AM
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Can you tell me the (about) 50 ways the Bolt EV is a POS?

There are more than 370,000 pre-orders for the Model 3 (Motor Trend, July 8, 2017) not over 400,000.

Musk himself said in the beginning the cars will be heavily optioned and will cost much more.

The cost of the supercharger network is built into the Model S price and it's been reported that for the Model 3 to use that network, it will be an option that will cost thousands extra.

I think the people that put down $1000 believe they are getting a $80,000 Model S for under $30K with rebates. I expect many of those deposits to be refunded when people realize that.

The Model 3 has a range of 215 (also Motor Trend, July 8, 2017), the Bolt is 235.

California electric rates are higher but We have a very clean power grid.
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Old 07-09-2017, 11:27 AM
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Old 07-09-2017, 11:32 AM
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Originally Posted by kendogg View Post
This has been the fear mongering talk for decades. Our electricity use has DECREASED due to advancements in technology. Don't live in fear.


And as far as your charging math though - where are you, the Communist State of CA? Those numbers I'm seeing you post look like ~.10/KWh. National average for off-peak is significantly less. And then there's Teslas Superchargers and any other public use chargers that may be available.
Actually our electric usage has INCREASED due to population increase and more usage of electric powered tools, electronics, and machinery. The problem is that the grid is NOT increasing in size or capacity, quite the opposite. They keep closing "dirty" power plants, but not replacing that capacity with anything considered as a "base load".

For what it's worth, I live in Texas which has one of the lowest electric rates in the country. The electric rate is only 6.5/KWh, but when you add in the taxes, line fees, administration fees, and other crap that's attached to your bill, guess what - 10/KWh. Check YOUR math and find out what you're doing wrong. Throw out any "rebates" or other con games and tell us what your electric rate REALLY is.
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