Need is what I would say, too. More recently and increasingly powerful second force, is the profit motive driving free enterprise. Still subsidiary but extremely important.

There is far, far more incentive to develop something truly unique and innovative with $100 oil than with $40 oil. The need has been recognized for 60 years -- since the Japanese attacked us over oil and the Germans invaded the USSR for oil. But there wasn't much profit motive. Now there is.

But nothing innovative is instantaneously apparent. It just seems so when viewed through the flat screen of history, when all things appear to move in a linear fashion. But if history were truly linear we would all know just what is going to happen, wouldn't we?

B

ANWR should not be drilled. It contains a small amount of oil and its only going to offset the problem of depletion, not solve anything. Its just a temporary fix

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Any oil pool is a temporary fix, no matter how large or how small. No oil source, no matter how large, will solve depletion. Any pool that is of sufficient size to be economically viable, will help forestall the day when oil runs out.

B

I've been looking for numbers about the amount of oil in ANWR and what we use. (no one has posted or cited anything else

ANWR.org (seems to be a pro-drilling site-they will estimate high) says that there are between 3.5B and 20B barrels of oil that is recoverable.

solcomhouse.com (seems to be a pro-environment site) says that we use 20M bbl/day here in the US, and we import half of that.

If the current Alaskan pipeline can supply 1M barrels per day( pipeline company site, then we are kinda limited in how fast we can spill oil all over the Alaskan Permafrost on its way to my gas tank. If we need to build a new pipeline then these numbers are subject to change, but 1M BPD seems to be a good place to start.

On the face of it, it would seem that if we only counted the oil benefits, maxxed out production rates and and used conservative estimates that the oil in ANWR would only last us more than a few years. If we believe the less conservative estimates, ti would last for more than 10 or 20 years.

If anyone wants to argue these numbers (based on lousy internet searches) please go ahead. Up to this point- a lot of people have made general statements like "there isnt enough oil up there to make it worthwhile" which no one can argue for or against unless we have some numbers.
Bot cited refining capacity, which no one has provided numbers for.
If you (not you Bot specifically, but anyone) want to convince me that your viewpoint is correct (me playing Mr. Joe Average Forum member) then please, give me the numbers and let me make my own decision. If your position is supported by numbers (in my eyes, + my judgement of the sources) then your case will make itself.

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Operative word is ESTIMATE. IOW it is just a SWAG based off today's technology at today's price. Didn't those people ESTIMATE how much the so called "dry oil wells" had? Yet they seem to be pumping again. I'm confused. How did that happen? Very simple. They said "Based on today's price and today's cost, this well cannot pay for itself.". What does that mean with tomorrow's price and tomorrow's technology and tomorrow's cost of extraction? Absolutely nothing.

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You got a better place to be?

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01 Ford Excursion Powerstroke
99 E300 Turbodiesel
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06 Polaris Sportsman 500 EFI
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04 Tailgator 21 ft Toy Hauler
11 Harley Davidson 883 SuperLow

FYI, ANWR ain't the only northern Alaska field that is under development. The NPR is about the size of ANWR.
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How much oil is there?
The US Geological Survey issued a new report in 2002 that significantly revised hydrocarbon estimates upwards. The agency now estimates that the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska has between 5.9 to 13.2 billion barrels of technically-recoverable oil on the federal lands in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska with a mean estimate of 9.3 billion barrels. Assuming price levels of $22 to $30 per barrel, there are an estimated 1.3 to 5.6 billion barrels of economically recoverable oil, an amount equal to what we import from Saudi Arabia in 3 to 6 years.

What about natural gas?
Although there are significant reserves of natural gas in the petroleum reserve, currently there is no way to get this gas to market. However, there is potential to make this resource available to local communities as a lower cost energy alternative. For example, the village of Nuiqsut worked out an agreement with ConocoPhillips to obtain natural gas from the nearby Alpine production facility. Depending on the location of future development, villages such as Barrow, Atqasuk and Wainwright may also benefit from small-scale developments.

From: http://www.doi.gov/news/040122cfact.htm

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Summary

In anticipation of the need for scientific support for policy decisions and in light of the decade-old perspective of a previous assessment, the USGS has completed a reassessment of the petroleum potential of the ANWR 1002 area. This was a comprehensive study by a team of USGS scientists in collaboration on technical issues (but not the assessment) with colleagues in other agencies and universities. The study incorporated all available public data and included new field and analytic work as well as the reevaluation of all previous work.

Using a methodology similar to that used in previous USGS assessments in the ANWR and the National Petroleum Reserve—Alaska, this study estimates that the total quantity of technically recoverable oil in the 1002 area is 7.7 BBO (mean value), which is distributed among 10 plays. Most of the oil is estimated to occur in the western, undeformed part of the ANWR 1002 area, which is closest to existing infrastructure. Furthermore, the oil is expected to occur in a number of accumulations rather than a single large accumulation. Estimates of economically recoverable oil, expressed by probability curves, show increasing amounts of oil with increasing price. At prices less than $13 per barrel, no commercial oil is estimated, but at a price of $30 per barrel, between 3 and 10.4 billion barrels are estimated. Economic analysis includes the costs of finding, developing, producing, and transporting oil to market based on a 12 percent after-tax return on investment, all calculated in constant 1996 dollars.

The amounts of in-place oil estimated for the ANWR 1002 area are larger than previous USGS estimates. The increase results in large part from improved resolution of reprocessed seismic data and geologic analogs provided by recent nearby oil discoveries.


ANWR (note map which includes the NPR described above) study here: http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs-0028-01/fs-0028-01.htm

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Refinery capacity, oil production, etc. by country.

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/country/country_energy_data.cfm?fips=TC


http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/refinery_capacity_data/refcapacity.html

Our tremendous energy addiction is the source of our national energy crisis.

Some of these arguments are close analogies to a heroin junky complaining that the reason why they're homeless is the fact that the prices have went up, and if more people would grow poppy then they'd be able to have a happy lives and shoot up in the living room of their new home.

8000lb RVs, 4 wheelers, boats, airplanes, etc etc are invalid excuses. They are luxuries, and as such are an extraneous consumption of money. Play outside... Camp in a tent... Buy canoes... Trade in the ATVs for mountain bikes... Read books with your kids...

If you don't "like" or "want" to do these things, then pay for the fuel. I like to drink micro-brewed beer, so I don't shout at the clerk because it costs 9 dollars a six pack. Beer is not a necessity, not unlike boats and 4 wheelers.

And on Iraq... Creating the world's largest refugee crisis, killing thousands upon tens of thousand of innocent Iraqis, and endebting us to nearly a trillion dollars (and in doing so, creating more crisis by trashing the dollar) was not worth 1 barrel of oil, or a billion. To buy that analogy, you must say that if someone breaks into your house and shoots you and your wife to steal money for his family, then he's justified.

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Beer is not a necessity?

Well...

Not micro-brewed beer. It's kind of the "powerboat" of beer. Should my ability to pay for the luxury beers wane, then I'll move to the "canoe" class of Miller Highlife .

Did a lot of "canoeing" in undergrad. I'm not too good for it

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I disagree that profit motive is a major driver of innovation. Once again, we can look at the auto industry. The American car companies. They now make some models that get 30mpg. Where were these cars 15 years ago? 15 years ago the Japanese were making them and making money. American business is weird in that they have R&D programs, but they either R&D to make current products/services more efficiently, or only implement new things after they have tapped out utterly the old way. They would rather influence the market to buy the same crap than make new and better things. It's understandable, as innovation costs money, and then production of said innovation costs more money, and American companies can't look past the next quarter.







Anyone can have whatever pastime/hobby/interest they want, and there will always be people with less pastimes than you. That doesn't mean that the costs of your pastimes, etc. is any more frivolous than someone with cheaper ones. The whole idea of hitting someone in the pocket book, or profit motive as Bot mentioned, is foolish. If someone is willing to pay a billion dollars to dump toxic waste, it doesn't mean they should/can. If you want someone to do something different, taking away all their options and/or forcing them into yours kicking and screaming is neither timely or efficient. Gas prices don't have to be high, just make cars that do the same things as now, only are more efficient. It's possible. Aklim doesn't want a station wagon, but one with a roof rack can do everything his SUV does with the possible exception of towing capacity. I know as I've loaded couches, TVs, mattresses, boxes, etc. in my TD, and hauled 4 sheets of plywood on the roof rack. I keep poiinting to Europe because they do everything with their vehicles over there that we do over here, only there it's a little bit different. More efficient.
Get Ford out of government.

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If you look at history since the renaissance, the profit motive has been the driving force behind everything from exploration to science to music.

There are no guarantees in a free market. If the American automobile industry fails to compete effectively then they will go out of business. The profit motive is still there. American car companies are merely poor competitors. How about Toyota -- think they innovate and compete for the good of mankind?

Why did we get hit first? Because we share an ocean with Japan, Korea and China.

Again, I would go with need on a lot of these things. Political maneuvering is part and parcel of the profit motive and of need.

The American auto industry is just an example, you can see their type of view in most American business. They may go out of business soon, but that depends on whether the government continues to interfere on their behalf. Regardless, they should've died a while ago.
I didn't say profit motive doesn't exist. But many innovations are driven by creativity, by desire, and by seeking better/more knowledge in one's industry. I don't think Honda's development of variable valve timing, eventually copied by the whole industry (minus of course the Americans), was solely due to profit motive and I doubt it had a major impact in that arena. In France, when HDTV came out, all the channels just switched over. There were no HDTV packages, extra cost or what have you. An innovation came out, they saw it was better, and they switched.

I don't know what you mean by hit first.

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1984 300TD

OK. So what is? Goodwill towards their fellow man? What makes you go to work? Your wanting to serve your fellow man? It is the payback. Not all payback is financial. Mostly it is.

Innovation costs money. Unfortunately, the same car that Ford, GM or Chrysler makes can be made for $2K less in a factory across the street that isn't union controlled. So, yes, under those circumstances, you are going to have to look at the next quarter and not try to figure out something that pays back in 10 years since you are not even sure you will make it past 2 quarters.

Think I bought an SUV because I like to sit high? I would have bought the 300 CE station wagon if it could tow. However, to have 2 vehicles instead of the 1 just doesn't cut it unless expenses could be equal. If the Ex costs the same to operate as the E300, I'd still be driving the E300. The E300 would have to cost significantly more to operate before I would drive the Ex unless I had to.

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If you insist on pro-creating, then you are adding to the problem and your point is muted by it.

The Alaskan pipeline is over 20 years old and cost billions to build. Would it not make sense to retrieve what supplies are up there while it is still in good shape? Natural gas can now be compressed and transported in ways we never had before that makes it logical now.

Wild Salmon are likely to go extinct in our lifetime because our population is growing exponentially and many do not want to use BIRTH CONTROL, not because of drilling for oil!

We are breeding faster than our limited resources can support us. Adopt children, there are plenty, like my sons that need good parents.